Oslo listed games developer Funcom, owner of Conan The Barbarian IP-rights, is developing an open-word sandbox survival style game based on the Conan universe called Conan Exiles to be released for early access at the end of January. Shares have recently taken off after the company showcased new content from the game. The games is being released on both PC and Xbox.

The company's market cap is currently at around $70m.

The company earned ~$8m in revenue TTM per Q3 2016 from its other games such as The Secret World, Age of Conan and Anarchy Online. At that run-rate it looks like the company is operational break-even for those products.

Conan Exiles looks very exciting and will probably sell very well given how other similar open-world sandbox survival games have done. I listened to the Xbox One Party Chat podcast with Joel Bylos from Funcom discussing the game and everything I heard sounded just amazing. But at the current share price success is already priced in in my view.

According to my calculations modeled on 5 million sold copies of Conan Exiles over 5 years followed by another game release with the same success I get a fair value of about NOK2.5-2.8 per share. And even in such an optimistic scenario Funcom would still be valued higher than Frontier Developments at the current share price. That is not attractive enough for me.

I have no doubt that exuberance can push Funcom shares higher though.

Am I missing something? I am more than happy to be corrected as I will probably buy Conan Exiles because the game looks great and I like to own developers of games that I play.