Cyberpunk 2077 release date 2017.02.02? - Komplett.se creates confusion

Komplett.se has posted a pre-order possibility for CD Projekt Red's Cyberpunk 2077 with delivery date set as early as 2nd of February 2017. https://www.komplett.se/search?q=cyberpunk+2077

The release date for the much anticipated game from the studio behind The Witcher was expected much later and it remains to be seen if this is just a mistake by Komplett.se or not.

 

Frontier to report trading update already in January

Previously I was expected a mid-year update from Frontier in February as a trigger for revaluation of the shares, but according to an interview with Frontier COO David Walsh it might come earlier. Walsh comments: “There should be a brief post holiday period release which will be followed up by the more formal in-depth update in February”.

The article also highlighted that the company in its latest FY results "carries the total cost of Planet Coaster's development and as yet receives only minimal revenue" and mentions a comment by analyst at Numis that "if the game (Planet Coaster) is only moderately successful there would be a materially positive impact on the P&L." This is more or less the same view I hold and the reason for my investment in the company.

The company has previously talked about three franchises, but in the interview Walsh mentions that "going forward the next step is to scale up so as to have four or five healthy franchises." 

Both the short and the long term case seems very sound for Frontier.

 

 

What's up with 505 Games? Stock is +250% since May!

I owned Digital Bros, also known as 505 Games, earlier this year but can now clearly see that I sold too early.

I really can't understand why the stock is having this insane year-end rally. The stock is up 250% since May and is probably going to be one of the best performing gaming stocks of 2016. 

I know they have had some cool and award winning niche titles such as Abzû, Virgina and Adr1ft and that they own the retail distribution rights for mega-hits like Rocket League - but I still find the rally in the last few days impressive. 

Somebody who is following this stock more closely than me, please help me understand.

Vivendi keeps on buying Ubisoft shares

Last week it was announced that Vivendi has increased its stake in Ubisoft to 25.15 percent. Vivendi keeps denying that it is planning to make a bid for Ubisoft. (Ubisoft Entertainment : Vivendi raises Ubisoft stake to 25.15 pct)

"Vivendi is not considering the launch of a public tender on Ubisoft nor acquiring the control of the company," Vivendi said in a statement.

If its not a take-over it, it must be an investment and maybe with some shareholder activism attached to it. 

Ubisoft does not look to expensive compared to peers, although some of its recent titles have only been gotten a luke-warm reception (such as Watch_Dogs 2 and Steep).

Betting on Vivendi gaming investments has turned out great before. It is worth remembering that Vivendi once owned 52% of Activision and sold its last shares in the company in early 2016 at a huge profit. (Bloomberg: Vivendi Sells Its Activision Stake, Netting $1.1 Billion)

 

 

Elite: Dangerous coming to PlayStation in Q2 2017

Frontier Development (AIM:FDEV) shares just got cheaper. 

See the announcement trailer here: https://youtu.be/YESNObZJTgQ

Frontier announced that Elite is coming to PlayStation in Q2 2017. 

If its launched before the end of May some of the sales will end up in the company's FY 2017 earnings (financial year ends May). Together with Planet Coaster the company will probably have a monster 2017 in terms of earnings.

GTA, the game that keeps on selling

According to Steamspy, Rockstar was able to move about 300,000 copies of GTA V during the Steam autumn sale. To put that into perspective, Tyranny has sold a total of about 100,000 copies according to Steamspy estimates. 

Worth mentioning is also Civ VI at 1.3m sold copies and XCOM2 at 1m according to Steamspy. With consoles transition to digital distribution I don't really see why Take-Two should be trading at half the EV/Sales multiple of EA and ATVI.

I am inclined to buy some Take-Two stocks here.

Multiplayer confirmed for SGW3

In an interview (http://www.doyouevengamebro.net/we-talk-sniper-ghost-warrior-3-with-senior-level-designer-tomasz-pruski/) with CI Games' senior level designer it was confirmed that Sniper Ghost Warrior 3 will have multiplayer.

As previously confirmed the game will be open world.

The campaign will take about 30 hours to complete.  

Moreover, the development budget for the game is 7x that of its predecessor. Something for the 6.6 million owners of the series to look forward to. 

 

 

Black Friday deals in gaming stocks

Here are the major gaming stocks listed by some rough estimated current P/S ratios:

  • Starbreeze 11x
  • THQ Nordic 8.6x
  • Paradox 8.5x
  • CD Projekt Red 8x
  • ActivisionBlizzard(King) 5.9x
  • Electronic Arts 5.4x
  • Take-Two Interactive 2.9x
  • Frontier Developments 3.2x
  • Ubisoft 2.2x

I am not saying the ones in the top are expensive. They most certainly have reason for their high valuation. But if you are looking for a deal – look at the bottom.

Ubisoft is not my favorite because of the dismal news around the Watch_Dogs 2 launch.

But Frontier Developments just launched Planet Coaster which has been the number 1 game on Steam since its launch on the 17th if we exclude for discounted games. And Planet Coaster sales are not even included in the P/S estimate above as they are based on FY 2016 – i.e. only Elite Dangerous & Elite DLC sales.